List of Figures

P.1 Sovereign external debt, 1800-2008: Percentage of countries in external default or restructuring weighted by their share of world income xxxiv
2.1 Ratios of external debt to GDP: Defaulters and nondefaulters, 1970-2007 25
2.2 Definition of debtors' clubs and external debt intolerance regions 29
5.1 Sovereign external debt, unweighted, 1800-2008 72
5.2 Sovereign external debt, weighted by share of world income, 1800-2008 72
5.3 Countries with banking and external debt crises, weighted by their share of world income, 1900-2008 74
5.4 Inflation crises and external default, 1900-2008 76
5.5 Commodity prices and new external defaults, 1800-2008 78
5.6 Net capital flows from financial centers and external defaults, 1818-1968 79
5.7 Duration of external default episodes, 1800-2008 80
6.1 Spain: Defaults and loans to the Crown, 1601-1679 89
7.1 Domestic public debt as a share of total debt: All countries, 1900-2007 104
7.2 Domestic public debt as a share of total debt: Advanced economies, 1900-2007 104
7.3 Domestic public debt as a share of total debt: Emerging market economies, 1900-2007 105
7.4 Share of domestic debt that is long term: All countries and Latin America, 1914-1959 106
7.5 Sovereign domestic debt, 1900-2008 117

Return to Top

8.1 Ratios of public debt to revenue during external default: Eighty-nine episodes, 1827-2003  121
8.2 Ratios of public debt to revenue during external default: Frequency of occurrence, 1827-2003  122
8.3 Ratios of public debt to revenue during external default: Cumulative frequency of occurrence, 1827-2003  122
8.4 the run-up in domestic and external debt on the eve of external default: Eighty-nine episodes, 1827-2003  123
8.5 Domestic public debt outstanding: China, 1895-1949  124
9.1 Real GDP before, during, and after domestic and external debt crises, 1800-2008  130
9.2 Domestic and external debt crises and GDP, 1800-2008  130
9.3 Consumer prices before, during, and after domestic and external debt crises, 1800-2008  131
9.4 Domestic and external debt crises and inflation, 1800-2008
 131
9.5 Who is expropriated, residents or foreigners? The probability of domestic and external default, 1800-2008
 134
9.6 The composite probability of domestic default as a share of the total probability of default, 1800-2008
 134
10.1 Capital mobility and the incidence of banking crises: All countries, 1800-2008
 156
10.2 Equity prices and banking crises: Forty episodes in emerging markets, 1920-2007
 161
10.3 The number of banks in the Unites States, 1900-1945
 163
10.4 Real GDP growth per capita (PPP basis) and banking crises: Advanced economies
 165
10.5 Real GDP growth per capita (PPP basis) and banking crises: Emerging market economies (112 episodes)
 166
10.6 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: All countries, 1800-1944 167
10.7 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: All countries, 1945-2007 168
10.8 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: Advanced economies, 1815-2007 168
10.9 Real central government revenue growth and banking crises: Emerging market economies, 1873-2007 169
10.10 The evolution of debt following major postwar crises: Advanced and emerging markets 170

Return to Top

11.1 Changes in the silver content of the currency: Austria and Russia during the Napoleonic Wars, 1799-1815
 178
11.2 The march toward fiat money, Europe, 1400-1850: The average silver content of ten currencies
 178
12.1 The median inflation rate: Five-year moving average for all countries, 1500-2000 181
12.2 The incidence of annual inflation above 20 percent: Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America, 1800-2000
 188
12.3 Currency crashes: The share of countries with annual depreciation rates greater than 15 percent, 1800-2000
 190
12.4 Median annual depreciation: Five-year moving average for all countries, 1800-2000  190
12.5 The persistence of dollarization  192
12.6 The de-dollarization of bank deposits: Israel, Poland, Mexico, and Pakistan, 1980-2002  195
13.1 The proportion of countries with banking crises, 1900-2008, weighted by their share of world income  205
13.2 Real housing prices: United States, 1891-2008  207
13.3 Real housing prices and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies  217
13.4 Real equity prices and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies  218
13.5 Ratio of current account balance to GDP on the eve of postwar banking crises: Advanced economies  219
13.6 Growth in real per capita GDP (PPP basis) and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies
 220
13.7 Real central government debt and postwar banking crises: Advanced economies  221

Return to Top

14.1 Cycles of past and ongoing real house prices and banking crises
 227
14.2 Cycles of past and ongoing real equity prices and banking crises
 228
14.3 Cycles of past unemployment and banking crises  229
14.4 Cycles of past real per capita GDP and banking crises  230
14.5 The cumulative increase in real public debt in the three years following past banking crises  232
14.6 Cycles of Institutional Investor Sovereign ratings and past banking crises  233
14.7 The duration of major financial crises: Fourteen Great Depression episodes versus fourteen post-World War II episodes (Duration of the fall in output per capita)  234
14.8 The duration of major financial crises: Fourteen Great Depression episodes versus fourteen post-World War II episodes (number of years for output per capita to return to its precrisis level)  236
14.9 The cumulative increase in real public debt three and six years following the onset of the Great Depression in 1929: Selected countries  237
15.1 Percentage change in real housing prices, 2002-2006  245
16.1 The proportion of countries with systemic banking crises (weighted by their share of world income) and U.S. corporate speculative-grade default rates, 1919-2008  252
16.2 Varieties of crises: World aggregate, 1900-2008  253
16.3 Varieties of crises: Advanced economies aggregate, 1900-2008  254
16.4 Varieties of crises: Africa, 1900-2008  257
16.5 Varieties of crises: All countries and Asia, 1800-2008  258
16.6 Varieties of crises: All countries and Latin America, 1800-2008 258
16.7 Global stock markets during global crises: The composite real stock price index 263
16.8 Real per capita GDP during global financial crises: Multicountry aggregates (PPP weighted) 264
16.9 The contracting spiral of world trade month by month, January 1929-June 1933 265
16.10 World export growth, 1928-2009 266
16.11 The collapse of exports, 1929-1932 267
16.12 The sequencing of crises: A prototype 271
17.1 Change in Institutional Investor sovereign credit ratings of sixty-six countries, 1979-2008 288

Return to Top